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Jay Noden: Advice for Business Owners Leading Up to a Potential Downturn

Jay Noden has been an accountant for over 30 years. After gaining experience as a corporate controller and then moving to an accounting firm in Edmonton, Jay decided it was time to open his own accounting practice in St. Albert in 2015, and he started with an office at NABI. He wasn’t always going to be an accountant, though. An unexpected downturn in his chosen industry railroaded his path in life early on. 

He went to school in Daytona Beach, FL to become a motorcycle mechanic, but by the time he made it back, a winter without snow for snowmobiling and a dreary, rainy summer drained away the market share for mechanics. He still has a passion for motorcycling, but he sticks to owning them and taking a few trips a year, leaving the tools to others. 

Another unexpected wrench in Jay’s plans came much later, and not from a market downturn, but an injury. After competing in the 2012 University of Alberta Powerlifting Association’s Power Surge event, he set a goal to join Team Canada for powerlifting. Unfortunately, a separated AC joint took him out for 18 months, and he never fully recovered from it. Like motorcycles, powerlifting is still a passion, but not a career. He’s no stranger to that saying about “the best-laid plans.” 

Despite his forays into other areas of interest, accounting is where Jay thrives. After his motorcycle mechanic career began to melt away with the mild weather, Jay ended up in NAIT’s business program. He specialized in accounting and became the corporate controller for a movie theatre chain involved in land development. 

When Jay decided it was time to set out on his own in 1995, he knew no one was going to lend him $4M to build and open a movie theatre, so he set out in public practice. Today, he works with businesses that range from contractors to travel agencies. He also specializes in not-for-profits and charities. And although it wasn’t his initial choice, being in business for himself and helping other business owners feels just right for him after the challenges he’s faced and overcome. 

The Benefit of Real, One-on-One Advice from an Accountant

Jay’s initial career was sidelined by an unexpected industry-specific market shift, but it’s made him more conscious of how small and large-scale shifts impact individual people and businesses.

When he started on the path toward becoming a professional accountant, Alberta was just coming out of the recession. Jay had a chance to develop an interesting perspective on what the ups and downs of a recession look like. 

It’s important for businesses to understand what the potential impacts are, Jay says now. Most owners already know that. In fact, many of Jay’s clients came to him because they weren’t happy with being passed around at larger firms. They want real, straight-shooting advice and market knowledge directly from someone who has a complete perspective. Most of all, they want to be able to ask specific questions that connect to their businesses, and they know Jay has one eye on the future of the marketplace and the other on their company financials.

How to Watch the Market for Signs of Downturn 

Jay advises business owners to be aware of how small signs in everyday life can predict larger changes on the way. He says one of the first industries to collapse under the weight of a recession is the restaurant and entertainment industry. That’s because one of the first budget items people tend to pull back on when finances are tough is personal spending on luxuries like dinners out. In the past few months, we’ve seen major, long-term chains like Red Robins and Tony Roma’s pull out of Edmonton, and Jay says that’s a trend people should keep an eye on. 

It’s not that people need to be scared, Jay says. It’s about awareness. Just like a leak from a pipe that’s about to burst, if something is about to happen, the market will probably be showing early signs, and the earlier you can start to make changes in your own business, the better.

The First Steps Owners Should Take When They See the Signs 

The problem with downturns, Jay says, is a bit like the problem of the Titanic: by the time the iceberg has come into view, it’s too late. When early signs of a recession set in, businesses should already have cut back on spending in some areas, but more importantly, they should be on the lookout for emerging opportunities to generate sales and revenue. 

For instance, people may start spending less on “maintenance” items as the economy cools down. Jay uses the example of a mechanic shop during a downturn, which tends to see people coming in for “break and fix” repairs that can’t be put off instead of preventative maintenance appointments. This is the perfect example of how businesses can adjust their marketing and sales, and why it’s important to see it coming from afar.

Jay keeps an eye on the local and global economic horizons for his clients, which means he can offer timely advice that reflects real conditions. Reach out to Jay and sit down for a coffee to discuss the financial landscape and how it might impact your business in the coming months and years. Be sure to ask him about his experience with office space at NABI when you do!

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